GoodGroup2Crop1The central aim of the research is to better understand the causes of periods where the rate of global-mean surface temperature is increased or decreased at decadal time-scales compared with long term (multi-decadal) trends. The multi-disciplinary research team are seeking to understand both the slowdown in the rate of warming since the late 1990s and also earlier hiatus and surge events.

Latest news

New publication: Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content

The ocean plays a crucial role in the global energy budget as it is Earth’s primary heat reservoir on climate-relevant time scales. As such, variations in ocean heat content play a fundamental role in global and regional climate variability and the transient response to climate. In addition, ocean heat uptake is one of the major […]

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New publication: Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period

Defining ‘pre-industrial’ The UN Paris Agreement on climate change aims to ensure increases in global temperature are less than 2°C above ‘pre-industrial’ levels, with an aspirational 1.5°C limit. However, the ‘starting line’ of the pre-industrial era is not defined by the UN agreements, or by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A new analysis […]

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New publication: Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

New, detailed, radiative transfer calculations of greenhouse gas radiative forcing have been performed by Gunnar Myhre (a SMURPHS External Partner at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo) in collaboration with the University of Reading (a member of the SMURPHS consortium).  They show that the radiative forcing due to methane changes are […]

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New publication: The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

Can the so-called hiatus be described as an unlikely rogue event? Recent research by SMURPHS teams at National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and University of Southampton has analysed surface air temperature from 20 climate models to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges”, and has shown that the global hiatus of the early […]

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New publication: The contribution of greenhouse gases to the recent slowdown in global-mean temperature trends

The extensive discussion of the nature, causes and even the very existence of the slowdown in the rate of global warming between the late 1990s and around 2010 has, surprisingly, paid little attention to the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the principal component of human-induced climate change. The results from a new study conducted by […]

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